Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

Sunday, 23 March 2025 (3 days ago)
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been oscillating inside the $82,400-85,300 range since March 14 as breakouts in both directions have been short-lived, as shown below.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Key factors behind Bitcoin’s flat price action include:

· Unpredictable US economic policies.

· Lack of fresh capital entering the market.

· Technical setups.

*Trade war fears offset pro-Bitcoin news*

Bitcoin’s price is stuck as bullish and bearish headlines are clashing, creating bias conflicts that keep traders guessing and BTC range-bound.

The bullish signals:

· On March 19, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and announced a slower pace of balance sheet runoff, signaling looser policy ahead.

· Fed Chair Jerome Powell used the word “transitory” to describe tariff-driven inflation, striking a dovish tone that briefly lifted market sentiment.

· President Donald Trump declared the US the "undisputed Bitcoin superpower" and is pushing for pro-crypto policies, including stablecoin legislation.

· MicroStrategy continues to lead institutional demand, adding 130 BTC for $10.7M million, bringing its total to 499,226 BTC.

· Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed selling US gold reserves to acquire 1 million BTC over five years—a bold sign of shifting attitudes toward Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

The bearish signals:

· Despite Powell’s dovish tone, the Fed raised its 2025 inflation forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% and cut GDP growth expectations to 1.7% from 2.1%, suggesting stagflation risks are on the rise.

· Bitcoin’s post-FOMC breakout was short-lived, with the price quickly falling back into a narrow trading range—signaling a lack of conviction.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

· Ongoing trade tensions and tariff uncertainty continue to hang over markets, with no clear resolution in sight.

· A European Central Bank official warned that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could trigger a global financial crisis.

In short, macroeconomic caution and geopolitical noise offset the bullish catalysts. Until one side decisively breaks through, Bitcoin’s price is likely to remain in limbo.

*Shrinking liquidity stagnates Bitcoin market*

A contraction in liquidity, declining speculative activity, and fading capital inflows are further keeping BTC locked inside the $82,400-85,300 range.

What to know:

· The realized Cap is growing at just +0.67% per month, signaling weak capital inflows compared to 13.2% in December, according to Glassnode’s weekly on-chain report.

Bitcoin realized cap net position change. Source: Glassnode

· Hot Supply, which tracks coins held for a week or less (a proxy for short-term trader activity), has dropped over 50%, showing a sharp decline in short-term trading activity.

*Related: **‘Bitcoin bull cycle is over,' CryptoQuant CEO warns, citing onchain metrics*

Bitcoin Hot Supply chart. Source: Glassnode

· Exchange inflows have fallen from 58.6k BTC/day to 26.9k BTC/day, a 54% drop.

Bitcoin exchange inflow breakdown by cohort. Source: Glassnode

· These metrics show a decline in trade and speculation, indicating that the Bitcoin market is transitioning from a profit-driven phase to a neutral equilibrium.

· Lower liquidity and subdued sentiment are capping larger upside and downside moves.

*BTC price trapped inside ascending triangle pattern*

Bitcoin’s price remains stuck as technical barriers continue to cap both upside and downside momentum.

Key takeaways:

· Price is consolidating between a horizontal support-turned-resistance level and an ascending trendline support.

· The upper boundary acts as a strong ceiling.

BTC/USD 12-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

· The ascending trendline is providing consistent support, preventing a deeper pullback.

· Recent upside breakout attempts have failed, including a false breakout above the resistance trendline.

· This tightening structure reflects growing indecision, likely to resolve with a sharp move once either level breaks decisively.

The horizontal trendline resistance and the ascending trendline support are painting an ascending triangle.

What to know:

· An ascending triangle is considered a bullish reversal pattern when forming in a downtrend.

· As a rule, it typically resolves when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.

BTC/USD 12-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

· This brings its upside target for April to around $91,965.

· Conversely, a breakdown below the lower trendline could intensify the selling pressure.

BTC/USD 12-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

· If it happens, Bitcoin’s price can decline to $77,635 by April.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

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